The long arc

Analytics

The long arc

Analytics

How strong United were, era by era. The records that football left behind.

6,028

Matches

4,886

Scorer rows

The signal

United's strength, measured

A single rating, updated match by match for over a century.

Rating signal

Elo rating, 1886–today

Open match browser →

1671now

1500 is an average side

1823
Peak Feb 2009: 1327
Low Apr 1894

1500 is an average side

Trophies

One dot per trophyStacked when a season won more than one · league titles and major cups

Slice & methodology

Slice: every competitive match, closed-universe Elo — opponents are rated only on their matches against United, K varies by competition and goal margin, home advantage worth 60 points. Shaded bands mark managerial eras, the longest-serving labelled. This rating drives the favourites line on every match page.

Does it hold up

Testing the rating against history

Does the expectancy hold when you replay the matches — one season at a time?

The proof

Does the expectancy come true?

Points share — on the diagonal means the ratings land where they aim

Win rate — the gap up to the line is where draws live

Slice & coverage

Slice: all 6,028 rated matches since 1886, grouped into deciles by pre-match win expectancy.

A season as the ratings saw it

Replaying 2025-26 from the ratings

Each match redrawn thousands of times from its pre-match win expectancy — a plain-language check that the rating's expectations match what actually happened over a full campaign.

Slice & coverage

Slice: each of the 38 Premier League matches redrawn 10,000 times from its pre-match win expectancy, 3 points for a win. This describes points totals, not table positions.

The ratings expected about 60 points (90% of replays landed between 47 and 73); the real side took 71, a total only 7% of replays beat. Open the season to see which results did it.

Slice: each of the 38 Premier League matches redrawn 10,000 times from its pre-match win expectancy, 3 points for a win. This describes points totals, not table positions.

The ratings expected about 60 points (90% of replays landed between 47 and 73); the real side took 71, a total only 7% of replays beat. Open the season to see which results did it.